Commercial Real Estate Non-Bank Lending: 股权和债务的戏剧

The photo of the poker chips was modified and the original photograph can be found here.

财产所有权的支柱

每个房地产投资者都知道，房地产所有权建立在两大支柱上:股权和债务.  股本 is your investment with your own dollars, or dollars from friends and family.  这也被称为首付.   The second pillar is debt, also known as loan, borrowing, and leverage.  在目前的市场状况下, 这两个构造板块之间存在应力, 是什么导致了重置来缓解这种紧张.  一个重要的参与者是私人债务市场.  那么，让我们来看看商业地产中这些重要参与者之间的关系.

在我的职业生涯中，我逐渐意识到，持有股权的人与持有债务的人的观点有很大的不同. The debt side get its regular payments, known as principal and interest.  股票投资者是风险承担者, 获得所有的上行利润, 但同时也有损失100%投资的风险.  债务方面的风险较低, agreeing to a fixed rate of return if everything goes as planned, but their returns are lower because they are foregoing any upside.  They just want their money back with interest, on time and in full.  为了简单起见, I am ignoring a lot of the nuances and complexities involved in lending, 为了说明我的观点.

 

股权和债务的戏剧

让我们用一个故事来说明.  这是1883年的圣安东尼奥.  你r name is Joe 股本 and you are in a bar playing poker, in a saloon late at night.  你的牌桌上有四个座位，另外三个座位由三名债务兄弟占据.  (This is to illustrate that a property is often purchased with 25% equity and 75% debt.  Debt almost always has a much larger stake in real estate investment than does equity.)

回到我们的故事……

债务三兄弟, 占了赌桌上75%的钱, 玩保守, 大多数情况下不会输, 不是为了赢.  你, 另一方面, 承担风险, 抽到内线直道，很容易就赢了, 在你面前堆积如山的现金.

然后, 突然之间, Bad Bart swaggers through the swinging doors at the entrance to the saloon, 无论他走到哪里，他总是惹麻烦! (Bart代表不好的事情发生在你的财产上, 比如失去租客, 经济衰退, 流感大流行, 法律诉讼, 等.).

The poker players all know trouble when they see it and jump up from the table. 债务三兄弟, 做一个不愿冒险的人, 挤在你身后, 排成一行, 所以你站在所有球员的前面, 把你, Mr. 股权，处于第一个亏损的位置. Well, Bad Bart spies your pile of cash on the table and he wants it all!  他掏出左轮手枪，指着你. 股本! 可能的情况有很多:

1. 你说服坏巴特. (你r negotiation and skilled maneuvering get you out of trouble)

2. 警长来了. (困难时期会在外部干预下自行解决, 比如美联储降低利率, 购买力平价的贷款, 等.)

3. Bad Bart shoots and you die, and Bart takes your cash, of course. The Debt brothers are sorry you got wiped out, but that’s life. 令人惊讶的是, 巴特只拿了股权的钱，而债务兄弟带着他们开始时的所有现金离开了.

4. The bullet goes through you and wounds the first Debt brother. (即对部分贷款进行减记)

But the Debt brothers survive and walk out the door to play poker again another day.  我相信你也能想象到许多其他的结果. 我们这个小故事的寓意是，持有股票的人和持有债券的人看待世界的方式非常不同.

我们正在商业地产的剧场里看到这种债务vs股权的寓言, 银行对贷款进行再融资或重组，这被称为“把问题拖到以后解决”.“或者，他们可能会被迫取消那些现金流不足、股权投资者不能或不愿投入更多资金的房产的抵押品赎回权. 这些贷款机构也可能将其不良贷款出售给一家私人贷款机构，后者将重组交易, but usually to the detriment and destruction of the equity investors.

 

下一个新常态的大重置

所以，我们现在发现自己处于大重置的中间.  首先，新冠疫情带来了超低利率. 本质上, 钱是免费的，因为借款利率和通货膨胀率都很低，美联储和我们的政府大量涌入美国.S. marketplace with loads of money available for lending on all kinds of real estate, 哪一种货币的价值在膨胀.

虽然这是必要的, 在某种程度上, 为了抵消停工+在家工作+保持社交距离+供应链中断+限制旅行的创伤, it would appear it was overdone as it produced very high inflation. The likes of which we have not seen since the OPEC oil embargos of the 1970’s.  现在我们正处于重新校准阶段, where interest rates were raised at a historically unprecedented speed to quash inflation.

它有效吗??  我们希望.

在下一个新常态的大重置中，许多借款人以超低利率购买或再融资, 现在必须以更高的利率再融资.  从3跳起.25% to 6.5% in your interest rate to refinance or if you have an adjustable-rate mortgage, 听起来不是很大, 但这意味着你的利息支出翻了一番.

然后, 再加上更高的财产税和保险成本, and you discover to your misery that your property no longer cashflows.  Banks will only refinance if their debt-service-coverage ratio shows you can pay your mortgage without problems; specifically, your net operating income must be 25% higher than your mortgage payments.

This means you will have to add extra equity into the deal to keep your property. Consider also that rising capitalization rates have brought values down by as much as 20%, so your bank’s new appraisal is now lower than your current balance.  哎哟!

但好消息是，房价似乎正在触底回升. The Green Street Commercial Property Price Index® was unchanged in February. 衡量机构质量商业地产定价的全地产指数过去一年下跌了7%，自22年3月的峰值以来下跌了21%. Yet a rebound in value is probably a year or more in the future, 因为利率可能要到2024年底才会下降.

 

银行家和其他人

这对信贷市场有何影响?  First, some facts about banks and commercial real estate (CRE) lending. The estimated size of the entire commercial real estate credit market is $5.8万亿美元，包括大约1美元.1万亿政府资助的实体贷款，比如gse

房利美和住房和城市发展部. 根据房地产圆桌会议, 一个行业贸易组织, 银行以约2美元的价格持有45%的CRE.3-trillion which includes about $650-billion in construction loans. Among the banks, big banks are more diversified with only about 12.5%, of their assets in CRE, while the community and regional banks are more like 38% in CRE.

信贷市场的其余部分是抵押贷款支持证券(CMBS)，其贷款期限通常为10年(约1美元).3万亿), and Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs) which are managed pools of short term, 5年或以下, 非投资级过桥贷款(近1万亿美元). 这真的是一个巨大的, complex marketplace and it is performing a critical role in our country’s economic growth.   银行占CRE的45%，其他实体占55%, 你可以很容易地看到，在过去的15年里，银行在商业地产贷款中的地位已经下降，非银行贷款机构现在正在发挥主要作用.

非银行贷款增加

私人或非银行市场始于20世纪90年代初，到2007年增长到约2,800亿美元, 在2008年金融危机之前. Banks were forced to become more conservative as a result of the GFC, 一个有趣的结果是，这带来了一个全新的非银行贷款行业, 哪一个是在银行监管机构的概述之外.

它经常被贴上阴谋论的标签“影子银行”,“然而, 这是私人市场的崛起，以满足银行不再能够提供的资本需求.  私人贷款行业已经发展到超过1美元.5-trillion in 2022 and has been a lifeline to small and medium sized U.S. 企业.

私人贷款行业已经发展到超过1美元.5-trillion in 2022 and has been a lifeline to small and medium sized U.S. 企业.

一个例子是 IRC首都住宅有限公司.，其中投资房地产公司 成立于2009年，是一家私人贷款基金，旨在解决小型房屋建筑商的临时建设贷款需求 在圣安东尼奥地区.

最初的200万美元基金现在已经增长到2200万美元，不仅覆盖了圣安东尼奥，还覆盖了奥斯汀, 休斯顿和达拉斯市场.     IRC CapRes可以灵活地为社区银行范围之外的小型建筑商定制贷款计划. This fund has provided over $300-million in construction loans for about 1,100 homes.

因为目前的信贷紧缩, 华尔街已经筹集了数百亿美元的股票和债务机会基金，以便在银行想要出售问题贷款时趁虚而入. 私人债务基金没有受到严格监管，其投资者主要是养老基金, 人寿保险公司和高净值投资者, who are supposedly better able to evaluate their risks and to absorb potential losses.

他们的管理者是技艺高超的房地产经营者，他们可以做出更多的创业决策，也能比银行家们更能促进解决问题. This may be by foreclosure or purchase of the loan from the bank.

They may buy the bank loans anywhere from par to a 50% discount. 预计旧业主/借款人将不得不将部分或全部股权交给私人贷方，以保留其财产.  它可能以过桥贷款的形式出现, 哪个是短期的, 高息贷款，其中一些股权或未来的上行交易为再融资，使交易继续发挥作用.

 

CRE的许多类别

CRE has many different sectors, each with its own particular characteristics.  为了让你了解每个类别有多大，这里有一个按债务金额百分比的细分.

 

办公室

让我们以办公楼为例, 举个例子, since they are currently the most distressed of all the property types.  The 流感大流行 and work-from-home policies have only partially reversed.  办公室入住率接近历史最低水平，约为87%，但实际入住率要低得多, 大概在50%左右.  这是通过手机活动来追踪的.

“下一个新常态”已经成为员工周一和周五在家工作，周二在办公室工作的工作周, 星期三和星期四, 但这仍处于转型阶段.  This means the rents supporting office building values are shaky.  因此, the loans invested in office buildings are backed by questionable equity, 在过去的几年里可能已经消失了.  然后, 这些建筑物的贷款即将到期, 贷款人不想在疲软的市场中取消抵押品赎回权, 但也不能再融资.  Banks are the most at risk because they are very heavily regulated, since they handle the checking accounts and savings of ordinary retail customers.

幸运的是, 办公楼贷款在大多数银行的投资组合中所占的比例并不大，问题贷款所占的比例也很小.  Experts say our system can handle this stress without major disruption, 但仍有许多办公楼贷款需要重组债务或股权，或两者兼而有之.

 

债务，股权和资本堆栈

To summarize, we see that debt is usually a larger portion of the capital stack than equity. 然而, 债务是不利风险的, 而股权, 希望, 只有合理的风险, 因为在债务面临风险之前，股权首先会贬值. 然后, 我们研究了债务市场的构成，发现非银行债务现在在商业房地产市场上的作用比银行债务更大.

我们正在迈向下一个新常态, which may still be a year in the future when the interest rates settle in around 5.5% to 6%.  Rates will remain higher because they were artificially depressed by the 流感大流行 and the FED; then artificially higher, 因为美联储.  Joe 股本和债务兄弟之间的动态紧张关系. 就像所有相互依赖的关系一样, 他们将在双方的帮助下度过难关，然后朝着阳光明媚的日子前进.